Copper prices are on the rise due to supply issues, primarily stemming from a production stoppage at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the world’s largest copper producers.
The copper market has been jolted by disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, with ripple effects spreading across supply forecasts and price expectations.
Copper prices plunged 20% after Trump excluded refined copper from a 50% import tariff, ending a rally. Other factors and upcoming Chilean election may affect future prices.
Global copper market faces surplus due to rising production and trade tensions. ICSG projects 289,000 metric tons surplus in 2025, but demand may weaken.
The metal known as Dr. Copper, a classic gauge of global economic health, is now flashing recessionary warnings just as it heads into a historically weak seasonal window. Given this backdrop, we want to analyse the data in more detail.
Trump is now backing out of the extreme positions and the markets are taking a big breath of relief. However, what we got today is just an indication of Trump’s willingness not to remove Powell and “be nice to China”.
Risk assets staged a recovery yesterday amid growing hopes for a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions. President Trump also eased concerns he might fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
The main risk to this seasonal view is a renewed policy shock that reinforces tariff fears or disrupts global copper supply chains — keeping U.S. copper futures bid.
