WiLL R. Young CFP delivers an impressive track record in the Brier Score prediction competition, outpacing top economists in forecasts about market trends, showcasing the power of behavioral psychology in investment strategy.
-- Shining a Light on Behavioral Psychology and Finance Mastery
WiLL R. Young, a prominent financial expert and passionate surfer, has demonstrated the effectiveness of his unique approach to investment strategies through impressive results in the Good Judgment Project. With a Brier Score lower than top economists, Young has proven that his blend of behavioral psychology, Stoicism, and financial analysis is a winning combination for navigating market uncertainty. This accomplishment is a testament to the years of study and research he has dedicated to understanding human decision-making and emotional biases in finance.
As a self-described "student of human nature," Young integrates principles from behavioral psychology, particularly those of Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, to guide investors toward making more informed, rational decisions. His focus on affective forecasting—the study of how emotions influence future predictions—has allowed him to stand out in the field of financial forecasting.
“I’ve spent years studying behavioral psychology, not only because of my passion for understanding human decisions but because it’s a practical tool to help investors stay on track during volatile times,” said Young. “It’s the constant analysis of human emotions and how they shape market behavior that provides clarity in a sea of uncertainty."
Crushing the Experts in the Good Judgment Project
WiLL R. Young has recently made waves in the Good Judgment Project, a highly competitive global prediction contest that evaluates participants' ability to forecast future events accurately. Competing against top economists and financial experts, Young has consistently outperformed them in market predictions, including on key economic indicators like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
In fact, Young has bested major Wall Street firms in predictions about the 30-year fixed mortgage rates, an impressive feat that highlights the power of his unique approach. For example, in the latest round of the competition, Young predicted the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2025 with a Brier Score of 0.019, far outperforming the median score of 0.136. He also scored 0.042 for predicting the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, again surpassing the median of 0.073.
These accomplishments showcase Young’s deep understanding of behavioral psychology and his ability to apply it to financial forecasting. His negative relative Brier scores of -0.095767 and -0.021659 indicate that his predictions were consistently more accurate than those of his peers.
A Brier Score measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions, with lower scores indicating closer alignment with actual outcomes. Young’s consistent performance in the Good Judgment Project reflects his mastery of market psychology, risk management, and strategic decision-making.
The Science of Behavioral Finance: Insights for Investors
Behavioral economics, a key component of Young’s approach, teaches that human psychology often leads to suboptimal decisions in the market. Investors may be prone to biases like overconfidence, loss aversion, or herding, which skew their judgment and affect their investment strategies. Young helps clients identify and mitigate these cognitive biases to maintain a strategic, long-term view of their financial goals.
“Markets aren’t just driven by numbers,” Young explains. “They’re driven by people. Our understanding of risk, reward, and decision-making is influenced by emotions—whether it’s fear during a market downturn or overexcitement during a bull run. The best investors don’t allow these emotions to dominate their decisions. They stick to a plan and wait for the right opportunities.”
Parallels Between Surfing and Investing
Young’s philosophy draws from his personal experience as a dedicated surfer. Just as surfers study waves to anticipate the best moments to paddle out, investors must analyze market trends to position themselves strategically. Both surfing and investing require patience, risk management, and mental discipline.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty when you’re out on the water,” says Young. “Waves come and go, but you can’t force the ocean to behave. The same applies to the market. You can’t control what happens, but you can control how you prepare, when you act, and how you stay disciplined.”
Young compares surfing to an investor’s approach to volatility: just as surfers manage the risk of wipeouts by choosing their waves carefully, investors must manage downside risk through strategies like diversification, asset allocation, and hedging. Emotional control is key in both cases, as panic and haste can lead to disastrous outcomes.
The Stoic Approach to Investing
Stoicism plays a central role in Young’s investment philosophy. He encourages investors to focus on what they can control—such as their risk management techniques, their emotional response to market fluctuations, and their long-term strategy—while accepting that broader economic forces and market movements are beyond their control.
Young points to the timeless wisdom of Stoic philosophers like Epictetus and Seneca, who taught that focusing on internal stability—rather than external events—was the key to enduring success. This mindset has made a significant impact on Young’s approach to both surfing and investing.
“By focusing on what we can control—our preparation, our strategies, and our mindset—investors can avoid becoming overwhelmed by market fluctuations,” Young explains. “The volatility will always be there, but by adopting a Stoic mindset, you can navigate it with clarity and confidence.”
Mentorship and Community in Investment Success
Another parallel between surfing and investing is the importance of community and mentorship. While surfing can be a solitary sport, many successful surfers rely on mentors, coaches, and a supportive community to improve their skills and navigate tough waves. Similarly, Young emphasizes that investors need a strong network of advisors and peers to refine their strategies and stay grounded during times of market uncertainty.
“Having trusted mentors and financial communities to lean on is essential,” says Young. “Just like in surfing, where you learn from others who have been through the highs and lows, in investing, you need a support system to ensure that your decisions are well-informed and balanced.”
About WiLL R. Young
WiLL R. Young is a financial expert with a deep passion for behavioral psychology, Stoicism, and surfing. With extensive experience in behavioral economics, Young helps investors build resilience in the face of market volatility and make strategic decisions rooted in mental discipline and emotional control. His work is shaped by the groundbreaking theories of Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, which reshaped our understanding of human decision-making.
Young’s goal is to empower investors to navigate the complexities of today’s financial landscape by fostering a deeper understanding of their own biases and behaviors. His approach combines years of experience in finance with insights from psychology and philosophy, helping clients make better, more informed decisions for the future.
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WiLL R. Young
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